Many firms report no productivity impact yet
Ivan Yotzov, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn et al. · NBER Working Paper 34836 · 15 Oct 2026 · not peer-reviewed
Source finding
83% report no AI impact on sales volume per employee over the past three years. Responses include firms with and without AI use.
Our interpretation
No reported impact does not prove ineffectiveness. Track use separately from verifiable outcomes.
Method and evidence
International firm surveys; 8,438 answers to the retrospective productivity question. Evidence of perceptions, not causation.
Limits and interests
Country weights differ; mainly May–July 2026, Germany January 2026. Non-peer-reviewed working paper. Research funding disclosed; affiliations do not constitute institutional endorsement.
What businesses can do
Set a baseline and a specific outcome target before using AI. Later check the actual change, including quality, review effort and costs.
Where to start
Section 4.5 and Figure 10B, then survey methods. Revised original dated 15 October 2026.
Related evidence
Demonstrable value · Use and business value